Friar Watch

Normally we focus on pitchers here but since there’s been a lot of talk about Kevin Kouzmanoff’s slow start I thought we could take a look at one of his at bats tonight.

In the fourth inning Adrian Gonzalez drew a one out walk and scored on Khalil Greene’s booming triple. Josh Bard then walked to bring up Mike Cameron, who’s been in a slump of his own. Cameron also drew a walk to load the bases for Kouzmanoff. Kouzmanoff spent the first month of the season looking completely overmatched and overwhelmed. He was swinging over breaking balls, fouling off pitches that he should hit and just not getting it done with men on base so this at bat was a big test for him.

In Kevin’s at bat the previous inning he hit a 3-1 fastball hard to left center but it was a fairly easy out. How would Kouz fare in a pressure situation, one out with the bases loaded in a tie game?

Remember, in this situation he’s trying to hit the ball to the outfield. A walk would be ok but above all he needs to stay out of the double play. And of course Matt Chico desperately needs a ground ball to get out of the inning so he’s looking to keep everything down and to get Kouz out in front on a change up.

Matt Chico is a soft tosser, it looks like he survives on location and changing speeds. I think he threw three or four breaking pitches all night, everything else was a fastball or change up. His fastball is about on par with Trevor Hofman’s, about 88-90 mph out of the hand as measured by Gameday. His change up runs about 82 with a Gameday-measured break length of 6 to 10 inches. At least I hope that’s his change up. If it’s his slider he’s in even bigger trouble than he showed tonight.

The first pitch was a change up low and away. Chico was trying to nibble on the first pitch but Kouzmanoff recognized it and laid off. So far so good.

With the count now 1-0 Chico tried to get inside with a fastball to even it up. He missed. Again Kouz recognized it easily and laid off.

2-0 and now Chico needs to get a strike, he can’t fall behind 3-0 with the bases loaded. He throws another fastball but elevates it, something I’m guess he doesn’t want to do with a pitch that started at 88mph and was down to 75mph when it reached the plate. Kouzmanoff did what you’re supposed to when you get an elevated fastball on a 2-0 count: he let it rip. Chico missed badly with this pitch, the catcher was set up inside. The ball was a on the outside edge however and Kouzmanoff popped it foul over the home team dugout.

2-1. Since Kouzmanoff just swung at a high fastball Chico throws a low change up, hoping to get Kouz to chase it. He misses badly and Kouz lays off.

Now it’s 3-1. It’s almost a sure thing that Chico will throw a fastball here. The Padre hitters stopped swinging at that change out of the zone, leading to the two walks this inning. Kouz has recognized it as well and won’t swing at it. Kouz can be passive and take all the way, hoping for the walk. No one would fault him, in fact he would be praised for being patient. But if he can get a hit he can break the game open. I’m sure he’s thinking swing at the fastball, let the change up go by. Chico throws a fastball in the middle of the plate but low. Kouz puts a good swing on it and drives it deep to center field for a sac fly, driving in what would prove to be the winning run.

There was some speculation that it was ball four. Gameday says it was a strike but no one knows what the umpire would have said. I think it’s a very good sign that Kouzmanoff still had the confidence to swing away there and wasn’t looking to eek out a walk. He showed good pitch recognition all night, taking 6 balls, 1 called strike (Gameday said it was off the plate inside), 1 foul and no missed swings. He swung at 4 pitches, all fastballs, and put 3 in play.

Even though Kouzmanoff finished 0 for 2 I think he can build confidence from this. He had the game winning RBI, he made good contact all three times and didn’t chase any pitches. He looked like a different hitter than what we’ve seen even a week or two ago. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him heat up soon and start hitting like everyone thought he would. We’ll revisit some of his at bats in a week or so and see how he’s doing.