Friar Watch

Jake wasn’t his usual dominant self but he was still effective. You might want to refer back to the charts from his last start and compare them to tonight, there are some interesting differences.

Strike chart
Green = Swinging Strike
Blue = Called Strike

Jake had 8 swinging strikes tonight, 12 last week. No surprise, the Reds seemed to have no problem making contact.

Let’s take a look at the balls in play:
Green = foul
Red = In Play, Out
Blue = In Play, Base Hit

This actually doesn’t look too different from the same chart in his last start. The big blow was Brandon Phillips’ double in the first inning. That’s the lone blue dot out on the outside edge. It was a changeup that Jake left up in the zone and Phillips hammered it. The Dunn single is the lowest, leftmost blue dot. A good pitch that fell for a bloop single.

Bronson Arroyo pitched great, he was simply left in too long. No way he should have been in there after Greene got the leadoff single in the 9th.

One of my theories with the Gameday data is that guys with a lot of movement will have a lot of calls that appear incorrect. Arroyo is all about movement so let’s take a look:
Red = Called Strikes
Green = Balls

So nothing that Gameday said was outside the zone was called a strike, but several in the zone were called balls. That definitely looks like a chart of a guy who has a lot of movement.

What about pitches the Padres swung at?
Red = Foul
Blue = Fair
Green = Missed

It looks like the Padres hitters actually did a pretty good job at laying off pitches out of the zone and swinging at strikes. Arroyo is just a damn good pitcher.

Finally, let’s take a pitch by pitch look at the last at bat of the game, Kevin Kouzmanoff’s bases loaded walk to win the game. Keep in mind that Kouz was 3 for 3 at this point and with the game on the line he could have easily started swinging at everything. Instead he continued to show patiences and a good eye.

Pitch 1: A visibly tired Arroyo tries to get ahead in the count with a fastball. Kouz fouls it off. It’s in the heart of the plate but even when he’s tired Arroyo’s pitches are sliding all over the place and hard to hit. Don’t fault Kouz for swinging at the first pitch, this was one he could have crushed. He was just a little late and fouled it off.

Pitch 2: 0-1 count, Arroyo tries to get Kouz to fish at a slider low and away. Kouz just spits on it and watches it go by. This is the kind of pitch that Khalil Greene gets himself out on. Good job by the rookie recognizing it as unhittable and laying off. 1-1

Pitch 3: Arroyo gets away with a mistake here. Looks like a change up, high in the zone. Kouz fouls it off. Now he’s behind 1-2 and has to protect. Arroyo was damn lucky, this should have been crushed.

Pitch 4: Is there a more predictable pitch than the high fastball out of the zone on an 0-2 or 1-2 count? Guys still fall for it all the time though. Definitely high by design, the catcher had his glove almost at eye level. Kouz recognizes it and leaves it alone. 2-2

Pitch 5: Fastball (?) in the dirt, it actually got past the catcher but not far enough for Greene to come home. Now it’s 3-2, bases loaded, bottom of the 9th. No pressure for the kid.

Pitch 6: Two seamer inside, Kouz pulled it foul. Gameday says it’s a ball but in that situation you have to swing at it. Still 3-2.

Pitch 7: After the game Kouz said he was looking for a changeup here. He got one. Gameday said it was a strike and it sure looked like one on TV. Kouz said afterwards it was “a very good pitch” and had a little smile on his face. He knew he got a break.

If I’m a Reds fan I’m a little pissed off but realistically if the umpire rings up Kouzmanoff there we still have the bases loaded with 1 out and the pitcher’s spot due up. That means an appearance by Mr. Clutch, Geoff Blum. Game was as good as over anyway.