Chris Young: Very strong outing for Chris, 7 IP, 10K, 3 H, 2 BB, 1 ER. Chris got away with at least one mistake, Cliff Floyd tomahawked a high fastball that would have gone out in most parks. Fortunately, Petco is not most parks and Mike Cameron hauled it in at the fence.
One of the problems CY has run into in the past is not being able to get missed swings, instead the hitters will continue to foul off pitches, raising his pitch count and driving him from the game after 6 innings. Tonight Chris had 19 missed swings and 14 fouls, leading directly to the 10 Ks. Let’s look at the chart:
White = release point
Green = called strike
Blue = swinging strike
White = in play, out
Red = base hit
Yellow = Cliff Floyd flyout to deep center
You can see why Young is hard to hit, he’s releasing the ball nearly 7 feet about the ground. The misses show a nice pattern of keeping the ball away, mixed with some of those high 88 mph fastballs that hitters just can’t catch up with. Except Cliff Floyd, who caught up with one around his shoulders and smashed it.
We also see some calls off the plate, something I’ve come to expect when looking at this data. The Baseball Prospectus article I linked to earlier has some thoughts about how we should be representing the strike zone in these graphs. I’ll be tweaking my charts this weekend to more accurately represent the zone, those wide strikes are perhaps not as far out as it looks.
Cla Meredith: Cla was great in the 8th so Bud Black sent him back out in the 9th, even though Scott Linebrink had been warming up. Even though Cla has sometimes faltered in a second inning I think this wasn’t a bad move. Meredith has been outstanding in his last two outings and this gives him some 9th inning experience. Meredith was the victim of some bad luck here, two singles are not normally going to lead to 2 runs and a lost ball game.
Heath Bell: Bell inherited a bases loaded, no out jam and did everything he could to limit the damage, including a double play grounder to third that Kouzmanoff mishandled into a run scoring fielder’s choice. I have to give major props to Heath Bell for growing a sweet Goose Gossage style fu manchu, it’s a great look for the burly flamethrower.
The problem with these low scoring games is it doesn’t take much to lose them. Getting caught off guard by a bunt, a runner scoring beating the throw home by inches, that’s all it takes. Not only do the players need to execute but the manager has to make the right move at the crucial moment of the game. I actually agree with leaving Meredith in to start the ninth, and I agreed with leaving him in after the two singles and the bunt. After the run scored I think he was demoralized and Bell was the right call. I can’t blame this loss on Cla Meredith, he didn’t implode or get rocked.
The crucial, game losing moment was in the bottom of the 7th when once again Bud Black sent Geoff Blum up to pinch hit in the worst possible situation. 1 out, two on and Lou Piniella inexplicably left his starter in after a HBP and a walk. This was the perfect time for Branyan, who is either going to strike out or hit the ball in the air. Instead Blum grounds in to a double play, something we all knew would happen. I don’t even blame Blum, I have to blame Black for continuing to use him as the first pinch hitting option despite no evidence that he’s any good at it.
11 responses so far ↓
1 LynchMob // May 26, 2007 at 1:30 pm
Anthony … a bit of a bone to pic with you … AFTER again thanking you for this must-read blog … the comment that Floyd ” caught up with one around his shoulders” seems like one that perpetuates the problem of the perception of the strike zone height … that yellow dot looks to me to be less than 4.5 feet up … Cliff Floyd’s shoulders are NOT 4.5 feet off the ground unless you think he has Bruce Bochy’s head on them
Well, OK, maybe in his batting stance? (Knees bent and slightly bent at the waist)
You know me … I just want the strike zone definition to match up with what gets called. If all they are going to call is just above the belt, and that’s what everyone wants, then write it up that way … but as it is, the rules say the upper-bound is half-way between the belt and the shoulders … and that’s gotta be 4-feet or more above the ground … it might even be where that yellow dot is … and Cliff Floyd has proved that that is a hittable pitch … so make ‘em swing at it!
2 LynchMob // May 26, 2007 at 1:47 pm
Yo, any thoughts on the “change” in the rotation that happened this week?
Now Jake and Chris Young are split in the rotation! Jake took Wells’ turn on Tuesday, 5/22 (ie. due to 2 off-days so close, 5/17 and 5/21), Jake got 5 days rest and it still was not his turn … but Black chose to go with him rather than give him the 6th day of rest … and then he chose to go with Wells rather than skipping the #5 spot completely …
It sure worked out … Jake was awesome … Wells was awesome … and Young was awesome …
It will be interesting to see if Bud skips Wells’ next turn after the off-day on Monday, and goes with Young + Maddux in the first 2 road games at Pit next week … I’m all in favor of minimizing Wells’ road starts … skipping his next start would put his next start back at Petco vs Dodgers … and then allow us to skip the Hensley/Germano spot in the order going back to Jake on Thursday, June 7th … which sounds like a good idea …
3 LynchMob // May 26, 2007 at 1:53 pm
A cool place to see that Jake bump’d up in the rotation is at B-P’s Pitching Gamelogs … http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/gl.cgi?n1=peavyja01&t=p … you can see that Jake went from the 1/6 slot to the 5/0 slot …
A specific aspect of this I’m interested in your comment on, Anthony, is why not pitch Jake very 5th “day” rather than every 5th “game”? He’s already have an extra start already! So that’d be 3-5 more starts over the course of the season. I think with the Padre bully being what it is that I’d rather have Jake start more often, and not push him as deep in those starts (ie. don’t worry if he only goes 6) …
4 LynchMob // May 26, 2007 at 2:10 pm
One more question for you … I was talking to a friend last night who watches almost all the games … before last night’s appearance (Friday), he said he was getting upset at Heath Bell for not throwing his fastball enough over the past week or 2 … does that match your obvervations? … does that match the GameDay data?
5 Ben B. // May 26, 2007 at 2:56 pm
Lynch, while I like running Jake out there as often as possible, I believe over his career he has pitched much, much better on extra rest. We also want to take as many precautions as possible to keep him healthy. Piggy-backing off an idea from one of your earlier comments, maybe a good compromise would be skipping him ahead to take road starts, but letting Wells pitch when we’re at home.
6 Anthony // May 26, 2007 at 3:59 pm
Heath Bell: I’m ok with him not throwing too many fastballs as long as he’s getting outs with his other pitches. One thing I’m learning from looking at this data is just how much of what we think of as pitching is based on getting ahead of the batter and then throwing pitches out of the zone, usually sliders or curves.
I don’t know the answer to where Peavy should be slotted. I’m ok with every 5th game, give him that extra day off to keep him fresh.
7 LynchMob // May 26, 2007 at 10:08 pm
Look ahead thru the Dodger series June 5/6/7 … if we skip Wells’ next 2 turns (which, because of off-days does *not* mean anyone pitches on “short rest”), then he would next pitch at Petco (a good thing) and also gets Jake a turn in game 3 of that series (also a good thing) … whatchathinkofthat?
Is “keep him fresh” more valuable than that?
Perhaps …
If I were a reporter at Bu’d post-game press conference tonight, I’d ask him about this
8 LynchMob // May 26, 2007 at 10:28 pm
Check that … my details are off … Wells spot comes up on the 2nd … perhaps Hensley can take that turn (at Washington)? Eh, it’s a pitcher’s park also, I guess let Wells go … or …
Here’s what I’d do if I were manager-for-a-month …
22 H Jake
23 H Wells
24 H Young
25 H Maddux
26 H Germano
27 H Jake
28 off
29 R Young
30 R Maddux
31 R Germano
1 R Jake
2 R Hensley
3 R Young
4 off
5 H Wells
6 H Jake
7 H Maddux
8 H Young
9 H Hensley
10 H Wells
11 off
This “rotation” has Jake pitching every 5th day (which is more than “every 5th game”) … assumes Hensley is back for June 2nd … and gets Wells’ next 2 starts at Petco (at the beginning and end of the 6-game home stand) … and gets Jake a start in the Dodger series (which doesn’t happen if Jake pitches “every 5th game”) …
Some interesting possiblities for Bud … setup by his starting Jake last Tuesday (when it was Wells’ turn) …
9 LynchMob // May 26, 2007 at 10:35 pm
Even just skipping Wells’ next 1 start gets Jake into the Dodger series … maybe that’s worth fret’ing about … but it seems valuable to me … and he’d be doing it on “extra rest” (because of off-day on 4th) …
22 H Jake
23 H Wells
24 H Young
25 H Maddux
26 H Germano
27 H Jake
28 off
29 R Young
30 R Maddux
31 R Germano
1 R Jake
2 R Wells
3 R Young
4 off
5 H Maddux
6 H Germano
7 H Jake
8 H Wells
9 H Young
10 H Maddux
11 off
12 R Germano
13 R Jake
Eh, sorry to be so verbose on your blog … but this seems like an interesting set of possibilities coming up …
10 Anthony // May 27, 2007 at 12:19 am
Wells has pitched well of late, I’d actually prefer to keep him in his regular slot. Getting more starts out of Jake is always nice but I think it’s also important to know what we have in Wells. If it’s possible I think the best move would be to juggle the rotation so Boomer gets more days off but everyone else stays on normal rest, plus get Boomer as many starts at Petco as possible. I’m working on a theory that the dense air helps Wells because it makes his curve break more than usual.
11 LynchMob // May 27, 2007 at 3:45 pm
I think skipping 1 Wells start is the right compromise … it gets him the “more days off” and more starts @ Petco … and gets Jake into the Dodger series on 5 days rest! But that means skipping Wells on Tuesday … simple … do it, Bud!
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