Friar Watch

These East Coast games in stadiums without Enhanced Gameday really make it hard for me to post anything meaningful. A few highlights:

Game 1: Maddux was ok, not great, but there was a lot of chirping about the umpire. We’ve got three guys in the rotation (Maddux, Wells, Germano) who are almost entirely dependent on location. If the umpiring isn’t consistent for those guys it affects them a lot more than it affects a Young or Peavy.

Also in Game 1, Meredith’s struggles continued. He struck out Crawford on three pitches out of the zone but again left too many pitches up in the zone where hitters have done damage all year long.

Game 2: I’ve been concerned about Peavy’s ineffective slider, something that often indicates arm problems. I wasn’t able to watch much of the game but from what I did see he seemed to be more effective. 8 Ks in 7 IP is a good indication his slider was working but 3 BB is a little troubling. On at least one of the walks he missed badly with a fastball for ball four, something Jake doesn’t normally do.

Cameron and Hampson got into the act since it was a blowout and both pitched well. At some point Black needs to realize both these guys are pitching better than Meredith and Brocail. I’m not saying they should switch roles but it’s ok to work the youngsters into the mix a little more often. Cameron in particular could benefit from more work, he’s always had command issues and sitting around for weeks on end isn’t going to help him.

Game 3: Justin Germano bounced back from a his worst start to have one of his best: a season high 4 strikeouts against only 3 hits and one walk in 6 IP. We’ve talked about his lack of strikeouts before but if he can continue at this kind of ratio he should be fine.

Heath Bell worked the 7th, giving up two walks but striking out the side.
Brocail worked the final two innings and did what was needed. He did give up a solo home run but you can live with that when you have a 5 run lead.

Next up: The Padres journey to the Friendly Confines for a three game series against the Cubs. All three games are monring starts so I don’t know how much I’ll get to see but I’ll try to get a post up for each game.

Nothing like an off day after getting swept to bring down your Monday. I didn’t watch the game yesterday and don’t have the heart to look at the Gameday data so no analysis. Let’s just pretend that whole series never happened.

Dan Fox has another great article derived from Gameday data. This time he looks at hitters and which pitches they swing at. Amazingly, a few guys like Jeter and Chone Figgins hit 100% of the pitches in the strike zone that they swing at. Brian Giles is right up there too at 96.2%. No surprise that Khalil Greene, Kevin Kouzmanoff and Marcus Giles are all listed as guys who swing and miss at a lot of pitches out of the zone but hammer anything they swing at in the zone. Bowen and Branyan are at the bottom as far as swinging and missing at pitches in the zone, Branyan only making contact on 61% of strikes.

Tom Tango points to an interesting article in Wired magazine that talks about how great athletes can recognize what’s about to happen sooner than the average person, and how this skill can be learned. It reminded me of how some people have reported that Derek Jeter is the last person on the field to move when the batter swings. I tried to watch Khalil on Saturday to see when he moved but every time I paid attention to him the ball was hit somewhere else.

Chris O’Leary runs a great blog where he looks at pitching mechanics but he also took a look at Tony Gwynn’s swing. Not a terribly detailed breakdown but it does show that T swung the bat a lot harder than people think. Make sure to read through his monthly blog entries for lots of cool insight on various pitchers.

David Wells: Boomer looked great for 6 innings. You know where this is headed: Black ran him out there in the 7th and it cost them the game. In the bottom of the 5th the Padres had two men on and I think one out and I told Geoff at the time that they should pinch hit for Boomer because he’s realistically only good for one more inning, tops. Black leaves him in to bunt and it worked out because Sexon’s foot was off the bag and the Padres scored some runs. But that was a lucky play, it had nothing to do with Boomer. I actually said he should send Maddux up to bunt, Boomer is really not a very good bunter. In the Ducksnorts comments LynchMob was also calling for a pinch hitter so it wasn’t just me.

Wells came back out to pitch the 6th and retired the side on I think 7 pitches so that worked out ok. But surely 6 innings is enough, right? Wrong, Buddy Black ran him out there in the 7th and Boomer promptly gave up two hits, leaving men on 2nd and 3rd with no outs for Heath Bell to come in and clean up.

Heath Bell: Bell got Betancourt to hit a ground ball to Adrian Gonzalez at first but Bell forgot to cover first, I think the ball was hit so far in the hole he assumed it was going to be a hit or Giles would field it and throw to Adrian. Adrian had other ideas however, he ranged to his right, snagged the ball and fired home to just get Johjima at the plate. Another incredibly heads-up play from Adrian.

The next batter, Jose Vidro, walked on 6 pitches. In the Ducksnorts comments LaMar said the ball four pitch was clearly a strike but take a look at this:

The 3-1 pitch was off the plate and called a strike. Either the 3-2 pitch was a make up call or the umpire just blew two pitches in a row. Either way, Bell threw 4 balls to Vidro.

Scott Linebrink: Linebrink faced Sexson to start the 8th and I was just about to say to Geoff that I didn’t like that match up when Sexson swatted a home run into the left field stands. Linebrink retired the side after that but the damage was done, the Mariners had come back to tie it.

Doug Brocail: While Doug Brocail warmed up in the bottom of the 8th Trevor got up and started getting ready as well. If the Padres had taken the lead I’m sure we would have seen Trevor in the save situation. So why not use him in the tie game in the top of the 9th? Isn’t preserving the tie just as important? Instead Brocail came in and coughed up the winning run. I’m not down on Brocail, he’s a decent pitcher, but if Trevor is available why not use him here?

As far as I’m concerned Bud Black was a huge factor in losing this game. Another huge factor was Khalil Greene whiffing on an 0-2 breaking ball to end the 8th, stranding two runners on base. When everyone in the Ducksnorts group knew a breaking ball out of the zone was coming, how come Khalil doesn’t know it? I can see why Sandy Alderson was so frustrated with him last year. He’s got good power for a shortstop, can turn on any fastball, but he just hasn’t learned to recognize and lay off that slider out of the zone.

In other news, the Lake Elsinore Storm game before the Padres game was quite entertaining. Matt Antonelli slammed a home run to dead center, the gargantuan Kyle Blanks hit a rocket into the Wester Metal Supply building and David Freese pulled what looked like a slider or curve that was low and inside and golfed it in to the WMS building as well. These Elsinore kids can swing the bat, too bad they don’t have the pitching to go with it.

Tomorrow’s big league match up is Felix Hernandez vs Chris Young. The combination of Young and a 2pm start time worries me. The balls were flying out this afternoon before that marine layer moved in around 6:30 or so, and CY is an extreme flyball pitcher.

Link: 6/09 Gameday XML data

Justin Germano: Germano didn’t have his usual pinpoint control and, predictably, he paid the price. 4 ER in 5 IP and once again Bud Black left a pitcher in after it was obvious he was cooked because he was due up in the bottom of the inning. I don’t understand the reluctance to go with a relief pitcher when you’ve got Kevin Cameron and Justin Hampson sitting around for weeks. So what if you burn Cameron for only one or two out? He’s not going to get in the game otherwise.

Justin Hampson: Hampson gets in the game anyway thanks to Germano’s collapse. Hampson was fine in 2 innings of mop up work.

Scott Linebrink: The Padres came back and tied it up so Linebrink came in and pitched a little better than his line would indicate. The Guillen strikeout was huge.

Trevor Hoffman: Trevor pitched the ninth to preserve the tie, no problems here.

Heath Bell: Bell was dominant, 3 ground ball outs.

Cla Meredith: For the second night in a row Cla gave up a home run. Cla has really struggled with keeping the ball low lately. When he’s at the knees or lower he’s unhittable but just a few inches higher and it’s like batting practice. I hate to say it but Cla shouldn’t be used in high leverage situations until he gets it worked out. Get Kevin Cameron in there in these situations, or Brocail.

Apparently some Dodger fans are commenting(#45) that Broxton’s last pitch last night looked like a strike. Funny, it didn’t even look particularly close to me and I’m not just saying that because I’m a Padre fan. I don’t put a whole lot of stock in how pitches look on tv, the angle just doesn’t give you an accurate picture. You’re compressing 60 feet of travel through a telephoto lens placed about 400 feet away.

I just watched it again on mlb.com and you can see Martin set up on the outside corner, he has to move his glove a good 8-10 inches outside to catch the ball. It’s possible, though unlikely, that Broxoton’s ball tailed away but it’s not going to tail that much in the 18-24 inches between the front of the plate and Martin’s glove, not when he’s throwing the ball at 99 mph. In general, if a catcher sets up outside and has to move farther outside to catch the ball, it’s not a strike.

Here’s the pitch chart for Branyan’s AB:

Pitch 1: Called strike on the outer edge. Pretty good location when you consider it was timed at 99.4 mph out of his hand.

Pitch 2: Another fastball, clearly a ball. 1-1

Pitch 3: A perfectly placed fastball, swing and miss. 1-2

Pitch 4: OK, this is the pitch Dodger fans can bitch about. This was taken for a ball but it’s clearly strike three. Now it’s 2-2

Pitch 5: No Gameday data for this one. Ball 3, 3-2

Pitch 6: The disputed pitch is not even really close to a strike. Even Trevor Hoffman wouldn’t get this call on his 500th save.

A hell of a sequence by Broxton but you can’t just keep pumping fastballs in there, even if you can throw it 100 mph.

Jake Peavy: Jake didn’t have his best stuff tonight, it seemed like he had trouble locating his slider and it didn’t have the usual bite. He had trouble with his slider in his last start as well, I mentioned in the Game Notes that I suspect arm problems and tonight did nothing to dispel that. Jake still pitched well but there was some talk that Kuo was getting all the calls while Jake wasn’t. Let’s look at the charts:

Jake Peavy
Green = ball
Red = called strike

That’s pretty ugly but it’s not actually as bad as I thought it would be. You can see where Jake was trying to hit that outside edge to lefties and just not getting it. On the right hand side there’s a few borderline pitches that were called balls but nothing egregious. Mostly what I see is inconsistency from the umpire.

Hong-Chih Kuo

Not surprisingly we see that Kuo’s pitches aren’t as tightly bunched. We also see the same inconsistency on the left side of the zone. Note: For some reason Gameday didn’t register all of Kuo’s pitches. We’re missing 8 balls and 4 strikes. Based on what we see here I’d say both pitchers were affected equally but Kuo was a little more effective in hitting the edge of the zone.

Back to Peavy. Take a look at his velocity vs. movement chart.
Red = Tonight
Blue = 5/27, the last time Jake looked right

Vertical axis is MPH, horizontal axis is what Gameday calls “break length”*:

The velocity is about the same but the movement is way down on all pitches. Again, I’m worried about Jake’s elbow. That slider he throws has to put a lot of torque on the elbow and it could be taking it’s toll.

* Defined as the measurement of the greatest distance between the trajectory of the pitch at any point between the release point and the front of home plate, and the straight line path from the release point and the front of home plate. - Gameday Blog

Maddux, Bell and Linebrink all pitched well tonight but the big story is Trevor Hoffman’s 500th career save. In honor of Trevor’s milestone let’s take a look at how he did it.

Leading off the inning: Nomar Garciaparra

Green dot = first pitch
Trevor usually likes to throw a first pitch fastball for a strike but Nomar is a notorious for swinging at the first pitch so Trevor gives him a low fastball. The location is such that it would be called a strike but Nomar would have a hard time doing damage with it. Predictably, Nomar hacks at it and fouls it off.

Red dot = second pitch
Ahead 0-1, Trevor wants to locate a fastball down and away. Unfortunately he misses badly and Nomar crushes it, I thought it was headed out of the stadium but the heavy sea air at Petco holds it up just enough to make it a lead off double.

Next batter: Jeff Kent

Green dot = first pitch
With a runner in scoring position, nobody out and a three run lead Trevor really needs to get ahead of Kent but with his power a fastball could be risky. Trevor surprises Kent with a slider in the heart of the plate, which Kent takes for strike one.

Red dot = second pitch
This pitch is a great example of Trevor’s nerves of steel. He’s once again ahead 0-1 to a dangerous hitter, and once again wants to throw a fastball on the outer part of the plate. Remember, he missed badly in this same situation and avoided a home run by inches. This time Trevor puts it where he wants, Kent swings and rolls a grounder to Geoff Blum at shortstop, Nomar has to stay at second. Bong!

Third batter: Luis Gonzalez

Green dot = first pitch
Trevor starts Gonzalez off the same way he started Nomar, a fastball low and in the middle of the zone. Gonzo fouls it off, just as Nomar did.

Red Dot = second pitch
Trevor knows Gonzalez has watched the first two batters go 0-1 and get a fastball so now is a good time to break out the change up. Trevor elevates it a little but the change in velocity is enough to cause Gonzalez to hit a grounder to Marcus Giles at second, Nomar advances to third. Bong, Bong!

Fourth batter: Russell Martin

Green dot = first pitch
Another first pitch slider, Martin swings through it for a strike. 0-1

Red dot = second pitch
Martin may have been guessing fastball here since that’s what Trevor threw to Kent after the first strike slider. If so, he was wrong. Trevor fooled him with a change up in the heart of the plate, Martin swung and missed for strike two. The reason the change up is so effective is even if the location is off the speed difference can make up for it. Where Trevor gets in trouble is when he can’t get those called strikes on the edge of the zone and then has to throw a fastball for a strike. The hitters know it’s coming and jump all over it. As long as he’s ahead in the count they never know if they’re going to see the fastball or the change. 0-2

White dot = third pitch
An 0-2 pitch outside the zone is sometimes called a “waste” pitch. Just throw a pitch way out of the zone and hope the hitter gets himself out. Not for Trevor. He throws a change up way out of the zone, I’m convinced he did this to give Martin a free look at another change up, get his eyes used to the slower speed. 1-2

Yellow dot = fourth pitch
The crowd is on it’s feet, anticipating the historic milestone. Martin just saw two change ups in a row, he can’t be sure Trevor won’t throw a third one out of the zone. Instead, Trevor rears back and throws his hardest fastball of the night (89.3 mph out of the hand, the others were around 86.6), it looks outside to Martin, it looked outside on Gameday, it looked outside to me sitting up in section 302 and to most of the other fans but there’s only one man whose opinion counts and that’s home plate umpire Jeff Kellogg. Kellogg has a flair for the dramatic, he gave it a little pause, the crowd went silent and then he rang up Martin on the called third strike. Cue the crowd erupting, cue the fireworks, the music, the banner over the right field bleachers and the Padres carrying Trevor off the field.

Chris Young: 7 IP, 3 H, 4 BB, 5 K, 0 ER. Despite the 4 walks I thought CY had very good control with his fastball. He had trouble controlling the curveball but it was mostly missing out of the zone, he didn’t hang any where it could hurt him.

CY was able to dominate tonight despite not being quite as sharp as we’ve seen in the past. There were some questions about some calls on the inside corner to left handers, let’s take a look.

Chris Young - all pitches to left handed hitters
Green = ball
Red = called strike
Yellow = swinging strike
White = contact made

Anything near the inside corner was called a ball. Most of CY’s pitches were away and those calls seem ok. We’ve seen this before, when a pitcher isn’t throwing strikes on one side of the plate the perception is that the ump is squeezing him when in reality he’s just not throwing strikes.

How did CY pitch to right handed hitters?

The first thing I thought of when I saw this chart was I must have screwed up, there’s no way Young threw that many pitches outside. But I double checked the data and it appears to be correct. Look at that location! CY only had two pitches on the inside half to right handers, and those were well within the strike zone. Right handers had NOTHING to hit all night. As Tony Gwynn would say, Chris Young didn’t give them a cookie. Chris Young is for real folks. We have one of the best 1-2 punches in baseball and they’re both under contract for at least 3 more years.

Scott Linebrink: Scotty gave up a single but once again was never in any real danger. His strikeouts are way down but he seems to be more dominant than last year so no complaints here.

Trevor Hoffman: Trevor Time in the 9th. You don’t think Trevor is going to let the Dodgers snatch one back do you? Write it down: save number 499. I’ll be at the game tomorrow night, if I’m lucky I’ll get to see number 500 in person.

Geoff at Ducksnorts has posted part one of the June edition of his monthly roundtable discussions. All the Padres bloggers give their opinions on Bud Black, Jake Peavy and more. Always an entertaining read so get over there and check it out.

David Wells: Boomer pitched well in a game that really shouldn’t have been played at all. There was a steady rain throughout the game but the umpires were determined to get the game in to avoid scheduling problems. The field was a mess and the players had a hard time holding onto the ball but Boomer was able to get through 5 innings with 3 runs. Not great but good enough from your 5th starter.

Cla Meredith 1 inning with 1 hit, no runs. There’s been some talk lately that hitters are sitting on the outside slider and taking it the opposite way.

Padres pitching coach Darren Balsley believes Meredith’s problems are more a matter of the elevation of the side-winder’s sinker.

“He has to stay at the knees or below,” Balsley said. “His sinker has been slightly up. They’re making contact and finding holes.”

Based on what I’ve seen in the Gameday data I have to agree with Balsley. When Cla is at or below the knees they can’t hit him. If he elevates even a little the hitters can get enough wood on it to get a base hit, even if it’s on a grounder. Cla has a very small margin for error due to his low velocity and lack of an off speed pitch. One thing he has going for him is the movement on his pitches. It’s not uncommon for him to get swings and misses on balls 2 feet off the plate. If he can get his release point where it needs to be and keep the ball below the knees he’s nearly unhittable.

Heath Bell, Scott Linebrink, Doug Brocail: The rest of the bullpen took over in the 7th and finished it out strongly. Bell was a little shakey with a hit and a walk but wasn’t in any real danger.